NATO: Russia faces unprecedented daily casualties in Ukraine war
In September, Russia's military endured average daily losses of 1,271 personnel, killed and wounded, on the battlefield in Ukraine, marking the highest figure since the onset of the full-scale invasion. Back in May, NATO cited a figure of 1,000 casualties per day. The official forecast signals that these significant losses on the Russian side could persist into the end of 2024. The increase in Russian casualties is tied to intensified fighting not only in the Kharkiv region but also in the Kursk area, signaling a broader escalation along the front line.
Despite these losses, Russian recruitment continues at a steady rate, with around 30,000 new conscripts each month. This ensures Russian troops can replenish their ranks, although a significant breakthrough would require a new wave of mobilization
NATO's representative declined to comment on Ukrainian military losses or the pace of their mobilization efforts during the latest Russian attacks, suggesting these inquiries be directed to Ukrainian authorities. Nonetheless, they emphasized that human resources remain a pressing issue for Kyiv as it strives to maintain troop rotation.
Russia is making small yet consistent tactical advances in eastern Ukraine, according to alliance sources. This trend is expected to continue in the coming months. However, NATO officials believe the Russian forces are hampered by a high attrition rate, insufficient training, and a lack of officers. Additionally, Russian forces have been unable to achieve a major breakthrough due to formidable resistance from Ukraine's armed forces and increased deliveries of Western weaponry.
In Ukraine's held territory, NATO reports Kyiv maintains control over 800-900 square kilometers in the Kursk region amid Russian counteroffensives. Despite ongoing efforts, Russia continues to hold a considerable advantage over Ukraine in personnel numbers, ammunition, and equipment. According to NATO calculations, Russia produces approximately 250,000 shells monthly, totaling around 3 million per year. This capability stems from reliance on basic technology, a strategic reversion to Soviet-era quantity-over-quality principles, and a shift towards a war economy. Iran reportedly supplied around 300,000 artillery shells last year, with thousands more coming from North Korea.
NATO defense ministers gathered in Brussels on October 17 and 18, with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky joining them on the first evening for a NATO-Ukraine Council session. Prior to this, President Zelensky attended the European Council meeting and addressed the European Parliament. He is presenting what he terms a "victory plan" to his partners in Brussels.