Pokrovsk isn't just the hottest spot in Russia's war against Ukraine; it's the epicenter where more than a third of recent Russian attacks have been concentrated in the Donbas region. On Thursday, August 22, there were 53 attacks out of 144 in this direction, according to Ukraine's Armed Forces General Staff . Reports suggest that Russian forces have advanced within 10 kilometers of the city, posing a significant risk to Ukraine's crucial supply lines. Military leaders have fortified defenses and urged residents of Pokrovsk as well as nearby cities Mirnograd and Selidovo to evacuate.

Oliver Carroll, a correspondent for The Economist, visited Pokrovsk on Tuesday, August 20. "The city is clearly on the brink," he reported. "This is a familiar cycle. Russian artillery begins shelling the outskirts, followed by guided bombs, FPV drones; towns quickly turn into ghost towns, people flee." Shops and hospitals remain open, but the streets are largely deserted. Since August 12, new curfew hours have been imposed in Donbas, where the Ukrainian government maintains control. In settlements within 10 kilometers of the front line, the curfew runs from 5 PM to 9 AM.

Pokrovsk, formerly Krasnoarmiysk, is a district center on the western edge of Donetsk region, with a pre-invasion population of around 60,000. Now, fewer than 40,000 may remain. Carroll witnessed evacuations by train, organized by the Donetsk Regional Military Administration, transporting people to the Rivne region. One free train per week has been announced, but critics like Sergey Garmash, chief editor of the "OstroV" publication and former representative of Ukraine in the Trilateral Contact Group on Donbas, argue it's insufficient: "People will evacuate unorganized."

Carroll paints a grim yet familiar picture for Donbas: "People flee, gathering their valuables in several bags. It's cars with furniture on roofs, chairs. I spoke to an 84-year-old woman experiencing her second evacuation. Her first was as a little girl in the 1940s. Now, she's fleeing from Vladimir Putin's army. She was so enraged she couldn't even utter his name."

The city's significance is profound, sitting at the crossroads of key rail and road networks, including the E-50 highway leading west toward Pavlograd in the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region. Reaching the administrative border of Donetsk region, part of which Russia occupies, is one of the Kremlin's declared goals. Official estimates indicate that as of fall 2023, Ukraine controlled about 45% of Donetsk’s territory with a population of about 480,000 people.

Military journalist Yuri Butusov calls the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration "key logistic communication nodes" that help Ukraine control its portion of Donbas. He warns that the situation in the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd area is critical.

Austrian military historian Markus Reisner concurs. "Pokrovsk is a vital logistics base for Ukraine. Without it, supply delays in other areas will occur. It’s also the center of the third defense line, beyond which there’s open space," says the lieutenant colonel at the Vienna Military Academy. "The stakes are high."

Observers attribute the current situation to two events: the February 17, 2024, capture of Avdiivka, a well-fortified suburb of Donetsk, and the May 2024 breach of Ukrainian lines near Ocheretyne. According to Butusov, Russian forces advance with small units. Carroll adds that the Russian military, now with fewer armored vehicles, primarily relies on infantry using motorcycles and scooters.

Reisner believes Pokrovsk's prominence is somewhat coincidental: "Russia breached the second defense line of the Ukrainian Forces there, which could have occurred elsewhere, such as in Siversk." Russian forces are attacking several locations in Donbas, and while battles continue in the suburbs of Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, the situation there looks more stable.

Some experts argue that Russia's offensive in Pokrovsk also reflects Ukraine's severe ammunition shortages last winter when U.S. supplies halted. Although the situation has improved, Ukrainian Forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyi recently acknowledged Russia's continuing artillery advantage, with a 3:1 shell ratio.

However, military governance and operational planning are seen as more pressing issues. Butusov and Carroll point to AFU’s "exhaustion" and "rotation fatigue," making troops sustain 30-40 days on the front lines, sometimes even up to 70 days.

As a countermeasure, numerous experts believe that Ukraine's offensive in the Kursk region, initiated on August 6, aims to alleviate Russian pressure in Donbas. However, analysts doubt this will change the course of the conflict there, with Butusov noting, "Twenty Sudzhas are no match for Pokrovsk, Mirnograd, and Selidovo."

Carroll highlights a different concern: enhanced Russian artillery detection and destruction systems have increased their counter-battery effectiveness this year.

Despite slower Russian advances in Pokrovsk recently, experts like Butusov predict dire outcomes. "There's a real threat that the adversary could capture Pokrovsk, Mirnograd, and Selidove by year-end," he warns. Carroll echoes the sentiment, pondering what's next and at what cost for Russia and whether Ukraine can decelerate Russian advances.

Some predict Russia could leverage Pokrovsk to push west and south (toward Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia) or north, eyeing the Kyiv-controlled Donetsk regional center—Kramatorsk. In contrast to Bakhmut with its advantageous heights and construction, Pokrovsk positions appear geologically less defensible.

Butusov notes the "most critical objective is a spoil tip dominating the eastern outskirts of Pokrovsk;" capturing it could enable Russia to control logistics into Pokrovsk and Selidove, heralding urban combat.

Experts, including the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), avoid forecasting total encirclement, interpreting recent strategic AFU withdrawals southeast of Pokrovsk as attempts to avoid tactical encirclement.

Growing anxious, Western experts like Markus Reisner stress ramping up aid to avert a disastrous fallout around Pokrovsk. Drone capabilities offer a promising if immediate solution, suggests Butusov, pointing to potential rapid production expansion given current advantages over Russian counterparts. "With drone aid, Ukraine could halt Russia’s advances," concludes the war correspondent.

  War in Ukraine, Pokrovsk, Donbas

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