Analyst warns of potential Russian expansion into Moldova or Baltics amidst stagnant Ukraine war
As the situation in eastern Ukraine stagnates, Russian President Vladimir Putin may be contemplating a move to annex another country, posits analyst Anatoly Nesmiyan, also known as El Murid. He argues that a compromise between Ukraine and Russia, as pursued by Washington, appears unattainable. The lack of conditions for a peace agreement may drive the Kremlin toward more aggressive tactics.
Newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump has issued an ultimatum to Putin, urging an immediate end to hostilities against Ukraine. Failure to comply may result in severe sanctions on Russia, Trump has warned.
Murid believes that Russia will soon experience the brunt of these penalties since Putin is unlikely to halt the aggression. He notes, "Trump is quite decisive… The promised sanctions are set to be strict enough to pose systemic challenges to Russia's already strained economy," as posted by the Russian blogger.
Faced with potential sanctions, Putin might seek to escape this quagmire by further escalating tensions. Unable to turn the tide in the Ukrainian battleground, he may target another nation.
Murid highlights that Moldova and the Baltic states are particularly at risk. "Moldova presents certain challenges, but its lack of NATO membership makes it a tempting option for Putin. Capturing the Baltics would represent a failure for NATO, as a rapid strike could catch the alliance off-guard," Murid suggests.
He emphasizes that Putin has little left to lose, thus significantly increasing the risks involved. A blitzkrieg effort may create new opportunities, allowing him to address the Ukraine issue through broad security negotiations with the West.
Murid opines that Trump might withdraw from the situation, leaving Europe to manage the Russian threat independently. "Should sanctions be imposed (and Trump will have no choice but to enact them), the likelihood of a sudden escalation beyond the Russian-Ukrainian conflict rises considerably," the analyst asserts.