With the Kremlin preoccupied by military operations in Ukraine and preparations for grand parades, tensions in Dagestan—still part of the Russian Federation—are nearing a boiling point that could exceed the Kremlin’s ability to control them.

Dmitry Steshin, a well-known Russian correspondent, paints a grim picture of the current situation in Dagestan: rampant radicalization, unemployment, a record-high birth rate, and the collapse of administrative verticals. In a post on May 6, he acknowledges that the region functions under its own set of rules, drifting further away from Moscow's influence. Steshin notes that despite a staggering birth rate—59% higher than Russia's average--Dagestan lacks jobs and real opportunities, pushing youth to emigrate en masse. Those who remain often find themselves drawn into radical movements. According to locals, "brashness and bluster are valued over intellect," Steshin reports.

Of particular concern to Steshin is the rise of radical Islam's appeal among educated families. He references a 2010 incident where one of the Moscow metro bombers was a young woman from a family of a school principal and PhD candidate. The father, reportedly thrilled by his daughter's act, exemplifies the alarming indoctrination, as Steshin highlights, “Father congratulated his daughter for becoming a martyr.”

Steshin insists that given the multitude of nationalities, languages, and clan structures, no effective governance exists within the republic. Officials are less concerned with lawfulness and more with not offending anyone, he notes.

The depth of the crisis transcends radical elements, reflecting a tapestry of systemic issues: frail state infrastructure, chronic poverty, tribal allegiances, rampant crime, and a sense of impunity amid a burgeoning population. Increasingly, this transforms Dagestan from a "Russian region" to an autonomous political zone.

With memories of Russia's bloody campaigns in Chechnya just two decades ago, today's escalating tensions in Dagestan evoke a threatening déjà vu. The 1950s and 1990s illustrated a disgruntled Caucasus's capacity for widescale insurgency.

Dagestan was ground zero in August 1999 for notorious warlords Basayev and Khattab's incursion, sparking the Second Chechen War. Recent hostilities, including an assault on police resulting in two officer fatalities, eerily resemble that lethal narrative.

Against the backdrop of a demographic decline in Central Russia and a growing southern population, Russia's power dynamics are under flux. Although Moscow maintains a façade of control, effective governance is fracturing—exacerbated by an army embroiled in Ukraine and an overworked National Guard and Interior Ministry.

In stark contrast to its external military pursuits, Russia faces a growing internal crisis. With failing regional governance and social decay, Moscow squanders trillions on expansionist politics, overlooking its domestic instability.

  Dagestan, Putin

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