Logistical struggles: Russian forces face constraints in Pokrovsk encirclement strategy
Amid widespread speculation about a Russian military plan to encircle Pokrovsk before launching an assault, military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko has revealed why this scenario might not be feasible and outlines the potential strategies of adversaries.
Reports suggest that Russian command considers encircling Pokrovsk prior to conducting a full-scale attack on the city, believing that an isolated city would not withstand prolonged defense. However, while planning is one thing, execution is quite another. The Russian forces currently deployed in the Pokrovsk area severely lack the resources necessary to execute an encirclement plan, which would demand colossal resources. Successfully surrounding the city requires a force of no fewer than 150,000 troops, whereas there are just over 100,000 currently positioned across the Pokrovsk-Kurakhove axis. This depletion means even if troops were reassigned entirely from the Kurakhove line to focus on Pokrovsk, the number would still fall short. Under current conditions, enacting a complete encirclement of Pokrovsk is physically non-viable.
In response, the Russian army appears likely to target the logistical lines into the city. The nearest artery under threat is Route 04-06, which also runs alongside a rail line. We anticipate ferocious clashes over the next few days in the Kotlino area, where units from the 55th Motor Rifle Brigade of the 41st Army are expected to engage. Should they seize this village, the Russian troops are predictably set to advance along Route 04-06, heading west toward the Dnipropetrovsk regional border. From their perspective, traversing this axis towards the administrative boundary is more advantageous than the terrain-challenging path along the Solyona River.
Parallel to this, Russian forces are bound not to relent on attempts to seize the M-30 highway and sever its western access from Pokrovsk—a more pressing objective than manning an encirclement. This strategy concerns not just the M-30 west of Pokrovsk, but also the eastern 05-04 logistics route to Kostyantynivka, a factor often overlooked and now under unprecedented threat. Russian forces are currently less than 2 kilometers away from the 05-04 junction north of Vozdvyzhenka. The village, a stronghold for over five months, is slowly succumbing, making its capture a matter of time—thus facilitating further advances toward the 05-04 stretch between Malinovka and the second Vodyane.
This analysis suggests that in the near term, Russian efforts around Pokrovsk will primarily focus on severing logistical channels as a precursor to any main assault phase. Initiating such a primary phase without neutralizing the Kurakhove salient and cutting logistic lines is, diplomatically speaking, illogical. But Russian decision-makers often defy logic. Should they be tasked with assaulting the city before Donald Trump's inauguration, an earlier engagement may actually be beneficial, tipping the loss-to-gain ratio unfavorably for the Russians.