Russian forces face obstacles in Dnipro river crossing
In recent developments on the southern front, the Russian military prepares for a likely offensive in the forthcoming days, potentially altering the dynamics in the region. According to reports, Russian forces are enhancing their presence on the Kinburn and Tendrovsk Spits.
While the situation in the south remains intricate, it is under control. In Zaporizhzhia, near the towns of Hulyaipole and Orikhiv, Russian forces are actively utilizing aviation and conducting artillery strikes, said Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesperson for the Southern Defense Forces, during a unified news broadcast. Voloshyn revealed that in the south, Russian troops are currently regrouping, refining logistics, and engaging in constant reconnaissance.
"We expect the enemy to ramp up hostilities here in just a few days," Voloshyn emphasized. The enemy has bolstered its garrison on the Kinburn and Tendrovsk Spits by deploying artillery and anti-tank assets. In Malynivka, the use of motorcycles, buggies, and ATVs is frequent to swiftly navigate the so-called "dead zone." Additionally, there are continuous attempts by the Russians to cross to Dnipro's right bank.
On the islands of Kozulisky, Nestriga, Bugaz, and Zabich, the tactical scenario remains "quite complicated," according to Voloshyn. Russian forces aim to secure footholds there, but Ukrainian defenders are providing staunch resistance. Russian forces are striving to get closer to the Antonivskyi Bridges, as this area offers one of the narrowest crossing points over the Dnipro. Defensive forces continue to thwart their approach, with combat ongoing daily, Voloshyn concluded.
Despite repeated Russian military efforts, crossing the Dnipro remains a distant dream for the Russian "Dnieper" military grouping, argues military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko. The group lacks the strength, resources, and morale needed for such an undertaking.
A recent video surfaced online showing units from the "Dnipro" group attempting to practice crossing the river, with disastrous results as some troops inadvertently sabotaged the operation. Although amusing to some, the exercise highlights a serious issue: the failure to successfully land forces on the river’s right bank. Speculation persists that forces on the left bank are preparing a flotilla for an attempted crossing.
In reality, the situation for the "Dnipro" group is complex and concerning. This largest grouping, numbering over 125,000 troops, is tasked with an enormous responsibility—monitoring not only the left bank of the Kherson region but also extensive potential combat lines primarily along the 300km span of the Dnieper River. This monitoring extends to high-risk areas like the Kinburn Spit and southern Kherson, totaling a staggering 650 km to oversee.
The sparsely populated Kherson region adds to the challenges, with key defensive positions easily threatened. Given the pressure on this significant landmass, troops struggle to exert effective control over the entirety of the required area.
Primarily concentrated in specific critical regions, the forces worry over a potential rapid assault they might not withstand. While nominally in control of certain towns, maintaining vigilance over the entire riverbank is a daunting task fraught with the unforeseen.
The Russian "Dnieper" group has been placed on a strategic land as more of a deterrent force rather than one ready for aggressive amphibious operations targeting areas like Kherson, Mykolaiv, or Odessa. Even in defense, vulnerabilities and exposed areas pose a serious threat.