UK Intelligence predicts over 70,000 Russian casualties in next two months amidst Kharkiv offensive
According to British military sources, the increase in casualties since May is linked to the advance of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region. Due to the effective defence by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and inadequate preparation by Russian forces, tactical successes for the Russians are unlikely. Russian battlefield losses keep setting new records month after month. The UK Defence Ministry's intelligence report provides further details on how the manpower of the Russian Armed Forces has dwindled since May
Analysts indicate that the average daily Russian casualties in May and June spiked to record highs since the conflict began—1,262 and 1,163 respectively. Overall, during this period, Russia may have lost over 70,000 personnel killed or wounded. The increase in losses reflects Russia's opening of a new front in the Kharkiv region while maintaining the same pace of offensive operations across the entire front. Although this new approach has intensified pressure on the front line, effective Ukrainian defence and a lack of Russian preparation diminish their ability to capitalise on any tactical gains despite attempts to extend the front line further.
British analysts have further stated that in the next two months, the casualty figures for Russians are not expected to decrease, potentially exceeding 1,000 per day. This is attributed to the Russian persistence in assaulting Ukrainian positions on the front lines.
On July 11, it was reported that Russian are being decimated even during rotations and in the rear, according to a National Guard of Ukraine (NGU) officer. Vladimir Nazarenko stated that in Donbas, Russian forces are consistently attempting to engage and assault Ukrainian positions, yet most of their plans fail. Consequently, Russian forces not only lack territorial gains but also suffer enormous casualties.