Ukraine's major cities at risk of Russian occupation in 2025, warns former military official
Former military officer Anatoliy Kozel, also known by his call sign "Kupol", has issued stark warnings that several major Ukrainian cities could face occupation by 2025 if current trends continue. In an interview with Ukrainian Witness, Kozel, formerly a lieutenant colonel and commander of Ukraine's 53rd mechanized brigade, criticized the flow of information to Ukraine's top brass and signaled a critical state on the frontlines.
Kozel emphasized the missed strategic opportunities in the past, pointing out that regions like Avdiivka should have been fortified as early as 2022. With the situation becoming increasingly dire, he advocated for the fortification of Dnipro City and the Dnipropetrovsk region, while suggesting preparations for a defensive operation in Kherson.
A recurrent theme in Kozel's evaluation was the self-deception prevalent at all levels, which he admonished must cease. He boldly asserted inconsistencies in the data reaching Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi, suggesting this misinformation could be nearly completely distorted.
Kozel described the situation as acutely critical, raising concerns about potential strategic errors and vulnerabilities on the front. Currently, only "30% of the front has tactical holes," yet he voiced concern that a collapse could allow strategic breaches, specifically highlighting Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as poised to become potential Russian strongholds.
Looking to 2025, Kozel projected continued Russian advances towards Donetsk. The fall of Pokrovsk, he warned, could pave a direct route to Dnipropetrovsk, an outcome bearing dire strategic implications. *"Seizing critical routes would mount Dnipro—the next staging point requiring readiness akin to preparations made for Berlin in '45 or Moscow in '41,"* he explained, extending similar preparations to Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
The prognosis from this military veteran is grim, underscoring a losing battle for Ukraine across all fronts. Without intervention, he predicts at minimum tactical losses, and at worst, substantial operational defeats, delineating potential territorial losses spanning 100 to 500 kilometers.
In a poor scenario, instead of incremental territorial shifts of 2 to 3 kilometers, Ukraine might face rapid advances of 20 to 30 kilometers, Kozel warned, with the frontlines potentially caving overnight. He quantified the occupation risk for cities like Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Dnipro, and Kharkiv as a 50/50 probability, underlining the current adequacy of Russian resources to seize major cities without yet straining domestic conscription.
Russian military tactics also featured in Kozel's analysis, citing illustrative failures with Avdiivka and Soledar. Russia's flank-encircling tactics contrast sharply with Ukraine's frontal counterattacks, eroding Ukraine's future reserves and prompting a strategic "all-in."
Kozel delivered a sobering critique, highlighting the unsustainable depletion of Ukraine's most motivated forces since 2022 due to inadequately coordinated engagements. The manpower once estimated to have around 5 million, realistically dwindled to 1-1.5 million, has been expended between 2022 and early 2023.
Troop morale depletion and subsequent brigade incapacitation present further obstacles, according to Kupol. He estimates workforce imbalances could equate to about "100, 150, 200 thousand personnel," approximating "20 to 30 brigades". This alludes to casualty rates and potential demotivations playing a role in exacerbating the critical manpower crisis.
With these impending dilemmas, Kupol leaned into realism, asking for adequate troop rotations to alleviate frontline pressures—yet lamenting the absence of an effective rotational framework in Ukraine.
Furthermore, Forbes journalist David Axe reported that Russia harbors strategic ambitions towards Pokrovsk occupation, indicative of their broader objectives.
Military expert Vladyslav Seleznev emphasizes ongoing efforts, with Russian incursions seeking optimal conditions for a broader conquest of the Donetsk region. Outlining the overt gameplan, he elaborated on Russia’s forthcoming moves, underscoring profound implications for the conflict landscape.