Ukraine warns Trump: premature peace talks with Russia could have dire consequences
Ukraine has issued a stark warning on the eve of Donald Trump's inauguration, cautioning that premature talks with Russia could have catastrophic consequences.
Kyiv insists that Moscow should engage in negotiations out of necessity rather than choice. Ukrainian officials are cautioning that forcing Kyiv into talks with Russia before Ukraine gains a battlefield advantage would be a catastrophic mistake, as Donald Trump prepares to take office as the next U.S. president.
Fearing a potential reduction in U.S. military aid if Kyiv refuses to negotiate, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is emphasizing the need for time and support to strengthen Ukraine's strike campaign on targets inside Russia. Zelensky's aides argue that if Russian dictator Vladimir Putin does not "feel the pain" before negotiations commence, it will embolden the Kremlin, weaken Ukraine, and ultimately damage the reputation and interests of the West.
Trump's statements about a "swift resolution" of the war have worried Kyiv, where officials believe that rushing into talks would play into Putin's hands. Even though Russian forces are attempting to advance, Ukrainian officials maintain that Kyiv is making progress far behind the front lines, specifically by hitting targets in Russia — including oil, military, and industrial sites.
According to Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the head of the President's Office, these strikes impact Russia's economy, which is Putin's greatest vulnerability.
Therefore, it's crucial for Ukraine to have the support needed to force the Kremlin to negotiate out of necessity, rather than choice.
Currently, 46% of the Russian oil refining sector is within reach of Ukrainian weapons. Podolyak asserts this means that Russia is gradually losing a significant portion of this key economic sector. Targeting Russian oil refineries is theoretically effective, as energy is the backbone of Russia's economy. However, the extent of damage caused by Ukrainian strikes remains unclear because Moscow has classified a majority of its oil production data.
Reports indicated that Russian fuel supplies by sea dropped by 9% in 2024, suggesting that attacks have likely forced Russia to curb exports and bolster domestic capabilities.
Nevertheless, Russia is mostly capable of "repairing" its oil facilities "within a week," and that only additional Western missile strikes on targets in Russia, combined with tougher energy sanctions, will make Putin "reconsider."
Still, it remains uncertain whether Ukraine's appeals will significantly influence the new U.S. administration. Ukrainian officials hope that if they cannot persuade the new U.S. president to provide all necessary battlefield support, they can at least ensure that Ukraine is not completely abandoned. Ukrainian officials see progress in efforts to convey to Trump's team that the ultimate goal of Putin's war against Ukraine is, in part, the destruction of the West and the redistribution of influence.
Meanwhile, despite cautious optimism, Ukrainian officials are quietly bracing for potential negotiations from less than ideal positions — if Trump remains "stubborn" and if Putin agrees to talks. The involvement of Ukraine's European partners is also crucial. In Kyiv, membership in the NATO alliance is seen as the only truly sustainable guarantee of security against Russian aggression — yet Ukraine is in no rush to receive an invitation.
Media have previously reported that in potential peace negotiations, Russia may demand Ukraine to reduce military ties with NATO and to become a neutral state with a limited army. Russian conditions might also include retaining control over nearly 20% of Ukrainian territory, though Moscow is allegedly open to exchanging some areas.