Ukrainian strike on Engels airbase highlights Russia's air defense vulnerabilities
While the recent Ukrainian strike on Russia’s Engels airbase is noteworthy, military analyst Alexander Kovalenko shifts focus to a broader issue: Russia's critical shortage of air defense systems.
As it stands, Russia has entered a phase of severe air defense deficiencies. Yet, that is only part of the story.
During both the Soviet era and modern-day Russia, the nation has never fully secured its airspace. From the time of the USSR to Russia today, there have always been areas with fully layered air defenses, those with patchy coverage, and regions with large gaps, spanning tens of thousands of square kilometers. Between 2022 and 2023, Moscow and the Crimea were considered the most well-protected areas. However, some regions, such as the Saratov Oblast, had robust intermediate defenses, a legacy from the Soviet period.
In recent times, there have been multiple reports of export-grade air defense systems on duty in various Russian regions, indicating an effort to retrieve or even repurchase these contracted systems to compensate for a shortage. Not long ago, a boastful Russian media report showed air defense in the Moscow region, which featured the unique arctic missile system "Pantsir-SA" Designed for the extreme conditions of the arctic regions, this system is now guarding Moscow.
Yet, the focus here is not Moscow, but the recurring vulnerability of the vital Saratov region, which faces strikes repeatedly, and denying their success would be unwise.
Ukraine continues to systematically exhaust Russian air defenses while concurrently targeting critical infrastructure. Meanwhile, the Kremlin, standing at a Rubicon prior to Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration, has failed to present anything compelling to convince the 47th U.S. president that negotiation, rather than pressure, is the way forward. Failures in Kursk and significant incidents in Engels underscore the lack of operational achievements in areas critical to Russia's goals post-Trump's inauguration.
Russia appears uncertain entering 2025, despite ambitions of setting ultimatums and demands. However, based on statements from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about the production of strike drones and missiles, it seems Ukraine’s strikes on Russia are just beginning. Consider this the prelude, a softening before the main course.