General Malomuzh predicts end of Ukraine war's hot phase by late 2024: Putin is cornered
The hot phase of the war in Ukraine could end by late 2024, said General Malomuzh, a former head of the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service, during a news broadcast on July 22.
He explained that ending this phase will require parallel efforts in two main directions: offensive operations and international pressure on Russia.
The general outlined the steps needed to conclude the conflict: determining under what conditions the Russian Armed Forces will withdraw, defining which territories will be controlled by which side, establishing a line of demarcation, and ensuring stability guarantees.
According to Malomuzh, the process will look organized across all fronts, with troop withdrawals happening at a specified date and time. Hostilities will cease, entering a pause until all agreements have been honored.
"Putin will not withdraw easily," said Malomuzh. "He will only retreat once he realizes that not only will he fail to capture new territories, but that he cannot even hold onto the ones he currently occupies, as we continue our advance."
Once troops are withdrawn and hostilities cease, borders—specifically between Ukraine and Russia—will be delineated. Protective systems will be established, potentially involving international mediators, and agreements will commence.
"This diplomatic and political phase will have been planned in advance," the general pointed out.
Malomuzh noted that diplomacy would currently be ineffective, but he sees late 2024 or early 2025 as crucial timeframes.
"Putin is cornered by all our data. His current strategy is to use force to maintain his position, but if given a way out, he will be pushed to withdraw from occupied territories under conditions of global security guarantees," added Malomuzh.
President Vladimir Zelensky has highlighted diplomacy as the sole condition for ending the war in Ukraine.
Military analyst Sergey Zgurets has reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces lack sufficient reserves for an offensive but could leverage the Crimea, occupied by Russia, as a bargaining chip.