Ukrainian-Americans could have an impact on the election in battleground states
While Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump has narrowed over the last week and a half, many observers have pointed out the fact that, due to the abnormal nature of this particular election, polling organizations may not be gathering accurate data on the voting populace. An example of this oversight which has been covered in the media is the early signs of a surge in Latino early voting- a population that, generally speaking, supports the Democratic Party. The rise in early Latino voters this election, however, is widely attributed to Trump’s numerous inflammatory comments towards the Latino population of the United States.
Another group that could have a significant impact on the election is Ukrainian-Americans, who have traditionally tended to support the Republican Party. Such party affiliation, however, has likely changed for many Ukrainian-Americans after hearing Trump’s stance on Russia and Ukraine. In August of last year, Trump said he “wouldn’t care” if Ukraine joined NATO, and when he travelled there the following month, he told Ukrainians that their war is “really a problem that affects Europe a lot more than it affects us.” In August of this year, Trump stated "He's [Putin] not going into Ukraine, OK, just so you understand. He's not going to go into Ukraine, all right? You can mark it down. You can put it down. You can take it anywhere you want," seemingly unaware of Russia’s annexation of the Crimea in 2014 and subsequent role in the war in the Donbas. What is more, the Republican nominee has not attempted to hide his admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying they “would get along quite well”, and exclaiming that it was “a great honor” when the Russian President praised him.
With a population of 1.5 million, the numerical impact of Ukrainian-Americans on the popular vote is dwarfed by that of the Latino population. Nevertheless, a significant portion of the Ukrainian-American population is located in battleground states that are must wins for Donald Trump. Pennsylvania, which holds 20 electoral votes and is currently leaning towards Clinton, has a Ukrainian-American population of 122,000. Ohio, which has historically been a swing state and is leaning towards Trump, has a Ukrainian-American population of 46,000 and holds 18 electoral votes. Florida, where the race for 29 electoral votes is virtually tied and where Al Gore famously lost by 500 votes to George W. Bush in the 2000 election, has a Ukrainian-American population of 43,000. Michigan, which is a Democratic stronghold but has been targeted by the Trump campaign, has 46,000 Ukrainian-Americans. Even North Carolina, with its 15 electoral votes and where the candidates are tied, is home to 10,000 people who claim Ukrainian heritage. In the tight races in these battleground states, the Ukrainian-American vote could certainly help turn the tide.
On Saturday, the Ukrainian Ambassador in Washington, Valeriy Chaly, stated that the Ukrainian diaspora in the U.S. could affect the picture of the presidential election. “One of the distinctive features of these elections is that the role of Ukrainian Diaspora as well as Diasporas of Poland, Romania and the Baltic States has increased,” Chaly said. “The number of citizens of Ukrainian origin in the United States is more than 1.5 million people. Frankly speaking, not all of them are politically active but even that part, which will come to vote, can have a serious influence.”
Ukrainian-Americans are generally proud of their heritage, and still hold strong feelings for their motherland. While their influence in Tuesday’s election may not be covered in the polls, they could prove to be a key demographic in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida, where Donald Trump needs every vote he can get. Instead of doing what he can to ensure that politically active Ukrainian-Americans remain loyal towards the Republican party, Trump has managed to alienate them several times over. It is obvious to the majority of the Ukrainian Diaspora that in order to have an independent Ukraine, it is necessary for the U.S. president to take a tough stance towards Russia, not one who openly admires Moscow’s foreign policy.